Henrik Fisker: “Most EV startups will close in 3 years”May 20, 2020
A new wave of startups developing electric cars is preparing to release their first models next year. Rivian will compete with the Ford F-150, Lucid promised to bypass the Tesla Model 3, and Canoo intends to end private transport with the help of its minivan, which is distributed only by subscription. However, according to Henrik Fisker, the head of the startup of the same name, most companies planning to repeat or surpass Tesla’s success will crash within three years.
Expensive and complex auto production requires taking into account the mass of parameters and the careful assembly of machines from thousands of parts received from dozens of suppliers. Tesla, the only surviving representative of the past generation of EV startups, took years to set up production. In 2018, the company, according to its leader Ilon Mask, almost went bankrupt, trying to start production of the Model 3 sedan.
“Most new EV startups will disappear within the next 24 to 30 months as they focus on manufacturing, and it has taken too long to explore this extremely complex and confusing industry,” Henrik Fisker told BI. “They will not have a sufficient margin of safety for trial and error.” In addition, the next wave of electric vehicle buyers will be less patient with poor build quality and lack of reliability. ”
Some Tesla rivals — Nio or Canoo — try to outsource production, others — Rivian or Fisker — do it themselves. Fisker plans to launch its first car, the Ocean SUV, in 2022.
According to Fisker, startups with electric cars will not be the only automobile companies who will face problems after the COVID-19 pandemic. As production scales and attractive prices become more and more important components of market success, some gas car makers (as well as their suppliers) will also face losses.
In the context of the coronavirus pandemic, the fate of startups can be shared by some manufacturers of components for cars with ICE, Fisker said. “The auto industry will not be the same, there will be no“ return to normal life, ”he said. “Reasonable investment will be the principle for a much larger number of buyers than before, combined with increased attention to environmental friendliness.”
The lack of demand for electric cars is noted by the head of marketing for Toyota North America Jack Hollis. You should not rush when moving to a new transport. Care must be taken: first hybrids, then plug-in hybrids, then fuel cells and electricity.
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