China to ban sales of gasoline and diesel cars from 2035October 31, 2020
The China Automotive Experts Association has announced a key target to ban the sale of new gasoline and diesel vehicles in the country from 2035. In 15 years, half of the cars sold in China should be electric, the other half – hybrids. The implementation of this plan will reduce world oil consumption by about 3.8 billion barrels per year, or 38 days of today’s global production.
The fact that this goal was voiced as a public organization should not be misleading – it was created and exists under the control of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology of China and serves as the basis for developing legislative and political decisions regarding the automotive industry and car owners. This is a managed “bottom-up” initiative that is traditional in China.
The essence of the idea is to stop selling (and producing) cars in the country only with gasoline or diesel engines by 2035. 50% of new cars should be fully electric or fuel cell (i.e. hydrogen), the remaining 50% can be hybrids, that is, combine an internal combustion engine with an electric or hydrogen engine, Asia Nikkei reports.
The goal is ambitious, but achievable – in 2019, cars on “new energy” made up 5% of all new car sales in China. This is more than a million cars, since the total sales of new cars in the country amounted to more than 25 million units last year. To compare and understand the market size – in the United States in 2019, about 360 thousand electric vehicles were sold. And the total world sales of electric vehicles amounted to about 2 million copies.
That is, the Chinese market for electric cars is already almost 3 times larger than the US market and makes up about half of the world. However, he just started to develop.
The Chinese authorities plan that by 2025 the sales of cars on the “new energy” will grow to 20% of the entire market, or about 6 million units. If this goal is achieved, then increasing the segment by 2.5 times over the next 10 years will not be a problem. Moreover, the authorities are already stimulating not only consumers to switch to electricity, but also manufacturers – a complex point system has been developed for them, stimulating the production of electric cars with a power reserve of 400 km or more on a single charge.
As for hybrid vehicles, by 2030 it is expected that 75% of all new ICE vehicles in China will be hybrid.
One of the consequences of the implementation of this plan will be a sharp decline in China’s oil consumption – in developed countries, up to 75% of oil consumption is accounted for by transport, primarily automobiles.
Replacing one car with an internal combustion engine with an electric car leads to a reduction in oil consumption by an average of 5 tons per year.
Every next 1 million electric vehicles hit the market leads to a reduction in oil consumption by about 32 million barrels per year. The Chinese fleet will have at least 120 million electric vehicles by 2035. This is a drop of 3.8 billion barrels of oil, or 38 days of today’s world production (today, 100 million barrels are produced per day). And if we take into account that the rest of the world car market will develop at about the same pace, then by 2035, 2.5 months of today’s world oil production will be unclaimed. One can only guess how this will affect the price of oil.
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