Bloomberg NEF: US Lags Farther In The Battery RaceSeptember 18, 2020
The US authorities are actively promoting the idea of electrification of transport and a massive transition to renewable energy sources, but they will not be able to achieve the same results in the production of batteries for electric transport, which are shown by China, South Korea or European countries.
Analysts of Bloomberg NEF came to this conclusion and said that by 2030 the profit in the market for the production of batteries will grow from $ 28 billion to $ 116 billion and the United States will receive only a small part of it. At the same time, China will increase sales of batteries 40 times, and Europe – 19 times as early as next year.
According to experts, the US industry will be severely affected if the growing demand for batteries is met only by foreign companies. If battery production is concentrated overseas, US suppliers will be forced to cut their own production and cut jobs.
“The United States may actually lose a lot of economic opportunity, while Europe and Asia begin to take control of the market,” said David Dick, COO of investment firm Azimuth Capital Management.
Until the end of 2021, there will be only one new lithium-ion battery production in the United States at the Endicott, NY plant. The Imperium3 New York LLC consortium will launch a factory and begin supplying thousands of batteries to defense and transportation customers as early as next year. While several new factories are being built in Europe, and dozens in Asian countries. Moreover, with an initial generation of cells of 1 GWh per year, the Endicott plant will only supply about 19,000 medium-sized electric vehicles with power supplies.
In the long term, the global market for battery technology for electric vehicles, consumer electronics, and renewable energy storage systems will grow to $ 116 billion per year by 2030, up from the current $ 28 billion. the new European factories are only locally owned, but in fact owned by Chinese and Korean giants including CATL, BYD, LG Chem and Samsung SDI. They are the ones who control the global battery market today and they will retain this control over the next decade.
The latter factor is of particular concern to Bloomberg analysts. Chinese leadership will negatively impact the national security of the United States and other countries linked by battery supply chains, as the PRC government can use the technology in demand as a political tool. Experts estimate that by 2025, China’s production capacity for the production of batteries of different types will grow to 1.1 TWh per year, which is almost double the current production of batteries worldwide.
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