Bloomberg: “In 20 years, one third of the world’s fleet will be electric”May 26, 2020
Automobile manufacturers, in part due to toughening laws in Europe and Asia, are increasing the output of electric vehicles. The pandemic will partially disrupt their plans, but by 2022 there will be over 500 different EV models in the world. A wide selection and competitive prices will attract new customers, as a result, by 2040, the share of electric vehicles in the global fleet will increase from the current 2.7% to 31%.
Sales of passenger electric vehicles increased from 450 thousand in 2015 to 2.1 million in 2019. A pandemic is expected to decline in 2020, but then the sales curve will creep up again due to lower battery prices, increased capacity, expansion of the infrastructure of charging stations and new markets . In 2025, according to the forecasts of researchers at Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF), they will reach 8.5 million units, in 2030 – 26 million, and in 2040 – 54 million.
The share of electric vehicle sales is still small (2.7%), but is growing rapidly. By 2040, about 58% of all newly sold passenger vehicles will be electric. In the markets of China and parts of Europe, this figure will be even higher, and developing markets will slow down the global transition of transport to new energy.
However, despite the growth in sales, there will be 1.4 billion passenger cars on the world’s roads by 2030, and only 8% of them are electric cars. By 2040, their share will increase to 31%.
Progress in autonomous transport technology will be stable, but will not have a significant impact on global trends until the second half of the 2030s.
Today, the leading market segments are municipal buses (33%) and two-wheeled vehicles (scooters, mopeds, motorcycles – 30%). By 2030 the picture will change – there will be more passenger and commercial vehicles. At the same time, the share of electric buses in the segment of city buses will grow to an incredible 67% by 2040, and the share of electric scooters and motorcycles – up to 47%.
By 2040, electric transport will reduce carbon dioxide emissions by 2.57 Gt per year.
At the end of 2019, Bloomberg analysts predicted that in the next decade the pace of development of renewable energy sources would exceed all forecasts. The transition to clean energy will happen much faster than many expect.
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